Clay County, Kentucky · Manchester
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Pipes freeze in Clay County on about 18 nights a year, mostly November to February. Older homes, 10% of the stock here, are most at risk.
Heavy rain days of an inch or more come about 10.6 times a year here, most often in February. A sump pump that hasn't run since last season is a common weak point.
Backups often follow heavy rain, which Clay County gets about 10.6 days a year, when storm water overloads sewer mains and pushes up through the lowest drain in the house.
In Clay County, 3.3 inches fell on the wettest day of the 2015–2024 record. Storms like that, and ice dams in snowy winters, cause most roof leaks.
10% of occupied homes in Clay County heat mainly with wood or propane, below the Kentucky county median of 12.6%.
With 50 muggy nights a year, mold in Clay County can appear within days of a leak. Dry first, then clean.
Local risk profile
About 19,921 people live in Clay County, 469 square miles in southeast Kentucky, in roughly 8,664 homes. Manchester is the county seat; Oneida is the next largest community. Much of its housing is recent, with a median build year of 1989.
26/100 Water Damage Risk Index: Moderate Clay County ranks 115 of 120 Kentucky counties. See the statewide ranking and method.The three factors where Clay County ranks highest compared with other Kentucky counties.
For frozen pipes, Clay County is a typical Kentucky county, which is still plenty. It averaged 85 freezing nights a year over 2015–2024, 18 of them at 20°F or colder, cold enough for pipes in outside walls and crawl spaces to freeze. Among 120 Kentucky counties that's 71st.
On February 20, 2015 the low fell to about -14°F, and in the stretch ending February 2015 the county went 5 days in a row below freezing. Leaks from split pipes typically appear the day the thaw arrives.
Most freezing nights fall from November to February, peaking in January. Disconnect garden hoses and shut off outdoor spigots before the first hard frost, and keep the heat at 55°F or higher if you'll be away.
On average the first fall freeze arrives around Oct 30 and the last spring freeze around Apr 16.
Rainfall is about average for Kentucky. The county gets about 55.4 inches of rain and melted snow a year, with 10.6 days of an inch or more (80th of 120). Those downpours cluster in February, July and December, when sump pumps and gutters are tested hardest. The wettest day on record brought 3.3 inches on July 28, 2022. Multi-day storms matter most for basements; the wettest three days on record here totaled 5.67 inches (through July 29, 2022).
Freeze-thaw days, below freezing overnight and above it by afternoon, come about 77 times a year here. They're the main driver of ice dams and of water working its way through foundation cracks in late winter.
Housing
Kentucky's 120 counties range widely in housing age; Clay ranks 100th, with 34% of its homes built before 1980.
30% of homes were built in 2000 or later, more than in most of Kentucky. Newer plumbing rarely corrodes, so damage here tends to come from appliance supply lines, water heaters, sump pumps and storms.
About 35% of homes went up between 1980 and 1999. Some houses from the late 1970s to the mid-1990s were plumbed with polybutylene, a gray plastic pipe known for failing at fittings. A plumber can tell you in a few minutes whether you have it.
Manufactured and mobile homes make up 31% of the housing here. Water lines in the underbelly depend on intact skirting and working heat tape, and they're usually the first to freeze in a cold snap.
16% of homes were vacant at survey time. A leak in an empty rental or seasonal house can run for days before anyone notices, which is why those losses tend to be larger.
Beyond water
Summer nights that don't drop below 65°F, a good marker of humid air, come about 50 times a year here, below the Kentucky county median of 59. Mold grows when indoor humidity stays above about 60%, the EPA's ceiling. A basement dehumidifier set to 50% and drying anything wet within 24 to 48 hours prevents most problems.
Mold remediation: what to expectBy main heating fuel, Clay County homes break down as 26% utility gas, 55% electric, 7% propane and 3% wood. Heating equipment, cooking and electrical failures cause most home fires nationally. Even a small kitchen fire can leave soot through the whole house, because smoke follows air currents into closets, ducts and attic space.
Fire and smoke cleanup: first stepsCoverage
Calls connect to restoration companies that work across Clay County. The largest communities by population:
Population from ACS 2020-2024 5-year estimates. Townships and unincorporated areas are covered too.
Nearby
Bell, Jackson and Laurel get more pipe-freeze nights than Clay. Bell County has the oldest housing nearby, with 52% of homes built before 1980.
By the numbers
| Factor | Clay | Kentucky median | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Homes built before 1960 | 10% | 18% | 105 of 120 |
| Homes built before 1980 | 34% | 44% | 100 of 120 |
| Homes built 2000 or later | 30% | 25% | 22 of 120 |
| Manufactured or mobile homes | 31% | 19% | 15 of 120 |
| Vacant homes | 16% | 13% | 39 of 120 |
| Wood or propane heat | 9.9% | 13% | 78 of 120 |
| Nights at 20°F or colder | 18/yr | 20/yr | 71 of 120 |
| Days with 1 inch+ of rain | 11/yr | 12/yr | 80 of 120 |
| Freeze-thaw days | 77/yr | 73/yr | 28 of 120 |
| Muggy nights (65°F+) | 50/yr | 59/yr | 88 of 120 |
Rank 1 is the highest value. Bars run from the lowest to the highest Kentucky county; the tick marks the median; orange means higher water damage risk than the median, green means lower.
Questions
Peak risk months in Clay County: freezing from November to February, heavy rain in February, July and December.
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 2024 5-year estimates (2020-2024); weather from NOAA nClimGrid-Daily county averages (EpiNOAA), 2015–2024, averaged across the county; county boundaries from Census TIGER. Reviewed 2026-10-21. Methodology