Carver County, Minnesota · Chaska
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Carver County averages 80 nights a year at 20°F or colder, mostly November to March, and 11% of its homes predate 1960.
Basements flood here mostly in July. Carver County averages 5.3 days a year with an inch of rain or more.
Backups often follow heavy rain, which Carver County gets about 5.3 days a year, when storm water overloads sewer mains and pushes up through the lowest drain in the house.
Roof leaks here come from summer downpours and, with about 84 freeze-thaw days a year, from winter ice dams. Most show up as ceiling stains in the room below.
8% of occupied homes in Carver County heat mainly with wood or propane, below the Minnesota county median of 30%.
About 19 nights a year here stay at 65°F or warmer, so basements and crawl spaces can grow mold even without a leak.
Local risk profile
Carver County covers 354 square miles of southern Minnesota, with about 110,041 residents and 42,270 homes. Chaska is the county seat; Chanhassen, Waconia and Victoria are the next largest communities. Much of its housing is recent, with a median build year of 1996.
31/100 Water Damage Risk Index: Moderate Carver County ranks 85 of 87 Minnesota counties. See the statewide ranking and method.The three factors where Carver County ranks highest compared with other Minnesota counties.
Carver County is milder than most of Minnesota, but not mild enough to skip winterizing. From 2015–2024 it averaged 80 nights a year at 20°F or colder, the range where pipes in exterior walls, crawl spaces and unheated garages freeze, and 151 nights at or below 32°F. That ranks 66th of 87 counties.
On January 31, 2019 the low fell to about -29°F, and in the stretch ending March 2015 the county went 24 days in a row below freezing. Leaks from split pipes typically appear the day the thaw arrives.
Most freezing nights fall from November to March, peaking in January. Disconnect garden hoses and shut off outdoor spigots before the first hard frost, and keep the heat at 55°F or higher if you'll be away.
On average the first fall freeze arrives around Oct 19 and the last spring freeze around Apr 26.
Rainfall is about average for Minnesota. About 5.3 days a year bring an inch or more (43rd of 87), most often in July, out of 30.6 inches of total precipitation. On August 11, 2016, 3.72 inches fell in a single day. Multi-day storms matter most for basements; the wettest three days on record here totaled 4.27 inches (through August 13, 2016).
The temperature crosses 32°F in both directions on roughly 84 days a year. Each cycle melts and refreezes water at roof edges and in foundation cracks, which is how ice dams and basement seepage get started.
Housing
Minnesota's 87 counties range widely in housing age; Carver ranks 86th, with 25% of its homes built before 1980.
44% of homes were built in 2000 or later, more than in most of Minnesota. Newer plumbing rarely corrodes, so damage here tends to come from appliance supply lines, water heaters, sump pumps and storms.
The 1980s and 1990s account for 32% of the county's homes. If yours is from those decades, look under the sinks and at the water heater for gray plastic pipe stamped PB, which is polybutylene and leak-prone.
Beyond water
Summer nights that don't drop below 65°F, a good marker of humid air, come about 19 times a year here, above the Minnesota county median of 13. The EPA recommends keeping indoor humidity below 60%, ideally 30 to 50%. Basements can pass 60% on their own in summer, so a dehumidifier matters even without a leak, and anything wet should be dried within 24 to 48 hours.
Mold remediation: what to expectMain heating fuel in Carver County's occupied homes: 75% utility gas, 15% electric, 8% propane and under 1% wood. Fires here are likelier to start in the kitchen or the wiring than in the furnace. After any fire, keep the HVAC off until ducts are checked, or soot will travel through the house.
Fire and smoke cleanup: first stepsCoverage
Calls connect to restoration companies that work across Carver County. The largest communities by population:
Population from ACS 2020-2024 5-year estimates. Townships and unincorporated areas are covered too.
Nearby
McLeod and Wright get more pipe-freeze nights than Carver. Sibley County has the oldest housing nearby, with 68% of homes built before 1980.
By the numbers
| Factor | Carver | Minnesota median | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Homes built before 1960 | 11% | 34% | 85 of 87 |
| Homes built before 1980 | 25% | 58% | 86 of 87 |
| Homes built 2000 or later | 44% | 21% | 1 of 87 |
| Manufactured or mobile homes | 2.1% | 3.8% | 68 of 87 |
| Vacant homes | 2.6% | 11% | 86 of 87 |
| Wood or propane heat | 8% | 30% | 81 of 87 |
| Nights at 20°F or colder | 80/yr | 89/yr | 66 of 87 |
| Days with 1 inch+ of rain | 5.3/yr | 5.3/yr | 43 of 87 |
| Freeze-thaw days | 84/yr | 86/yr | 63 of 87 |
| Muggy nights (65°F+) | 19/yr | 13/yr | 19 of 87 |
Rank 1 is the highest value. Bars run from the lowest to the highest Minnesota county; the tick marks the median; orange means higher water damage risk than the median, green means lower.
Questions
Peak risk months in Carver County: freezing from November to March, heavy rain in May, July and August.
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 2024 5-year estimates (2020-2024); weather from NOAA nClimGrid-Daily county averages (EpiNOAA), 2015–2024, averaged across the county; county boundaries from Census TIGER. Reviewed 2026-10-21. Methodology