Dakota County, Minnesota · Hastings
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Dakota County averages 75 nights a year at 20°F or colder, mostly November to March, and 11% of its homes predate 1960.
Heavy rain days of an inch or more come about 5.5 times a year here, most often in May. A sump pump that hasn't run since last season is a common weak point.
Sewage backups in Dakota County spike on heavy-rain days, about 5.5 a year, when sewer mains fill up and water finds the lowest drain.
Roof leaks here come from summer downpours and, with about 82 freeze-thaw days a year, from winter ice dams. Most show up as ceiling stains in the room below.
3% of occupied homes in Dakota County heat mainly with wood or propane, below the Minnesota county median of 30%.
About 24 nights a year here stay at 65°F or warmer, so basements and crawl spaces can grow mold even without a leak.
Local risk profile
Dakota County covers 563 square miles of southern Minnesota, with about 445,771 residents and 178,879 homes. The county seat is Hastings, and Lakeville, Eagan and Burnsville round out the largest towns. Much of its housing is recent, with a median build year of 1988.
31/100 Water Damage Risk Index: Moderate Dakota County ranks 86 of 87 Minnesota counties. See the statewide ranking and method.The three factors where Dakota County ranks highest compared with other Minnesota counties.
Winters here are on the gentler end for Minnesota, and pipes still freeze. In the 2015–2024 record the county logged about 75 nights a year at or below 20°F (84th of 87) and 147 below freezing. Twenty degrees is roughly where uninsulated pipes start to freeze.
On January 31, 2019 the low fell to about -30°F, and in the stretch ending March 2015 the county went 26 days in a row below freezing. Leaks from split pipes typically appear the day the thaw arrives.
Expect the hardest freezes in January, inside a season that runs November to March. That's when an outdoor spigot left connected to a hose, or a pipe in a crawl space, is most likely to split.
Freezing nights typically start around Oct 22 and end around Apr 29.
Rainfall is about average for Minnesota. About 5.5 days a year bring an inch or more (37th of 87), most often in May, out of 32.4 inches of total precipitation. On August 11, 2016, 3.37 inches fell in a single day. The worst three-day stretch dropped 3.89 inches, ending August 13, 2016, the kind of soaking that overwhelms sump pumps and storm sewers.
Freeze-thaw days, below freezing overnight and above it by afternoon, come about 82 times a year here. They're the main driver of ice dams and of water working its way through foundation cracks in late winter.
Housing
Roughly 35% of the county's housing was built before 1980. That puts Dakota among the newer housing stocks of Minnesota's 87 counties.
Growth since 2000 added 27% of today's homes. In houses that new, the weak points are washing machine hoses, ice maker lines, water heaters and sump pumps rather than the pipes in the walls.
About 38% of homes went up between 1980 and 1999. Some houses from the late 1970s to the mid-1990s were plumbed with polybutylene, a gray plastic pipe known for failing at fittings. A plumber can tell you in a few minutes whether you have it.
Beyond water
About 24 nights a year in Dakota County stay at 65°F or warmer, a sign of muggy summer air (2nd of 87 counties). August is the wettest month. Mold grows when indoor humidity stays above about 60%, the EPA's ceiling. A basement dehumidifier set to 50% and drying anything wet within 24 to 48 hours prevents most problems.
Mold remediation: what to expectBy main heating fuel, Dakota County homes break down as 79% utility gas, 16% electric, 3% propane and under 1% wood. Heating equipment, cooking and electrical failures cause most home fires nationally. Even a small kitchen fire can leave soot through the whole house, because smoke follows air currents into closets, ducts and attic space.
Fire and smoke cleanup: first stepsCoverage
Calls connect to restoration companies that work across Dakota County. The largest communities by population:
Population from ACS 2020-2024 5-year estimates. Townships and unincorporated areas are covered too.
Nearby
Goodhue, Hennepin, Rice, Scott and Washington get more pipe-freeze nights than Dakota. Ramsey County has the oldest housing nearby, with 69% of homes built before 1980.
By the numbers
| Factor | Dakota | Minnesota median | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Homes built before 1960 | 11% | 34% | 84 of 87 |
| Homes built before 1980 | 35% | 58% | 81 of 87 |
| Homes built 2000 or later | 27% | 21% | 24 of 87 |
| Manufactured or mobile homes | 1.6% | 3.8% | 76 of 87 |
| Vacant homes | 2.5% | 11% | 87 of 87 |
| Wood or propane heat | 3% | 30% | 83 of 87 |
| Nights at 20°F or colder | 75/yr | 89/yr | 84 of 87 |
| Days with 1 inch+ of rain | 5.5/yr | 5.3/yr | 37 of 87 |
| Freeze-thaw days | 82/yr | 86/yr | 71 of 87 |
| Muggy nights (65°F+) | 24/yr | 13/yr | 2 of 87 |
Rank 1 is the highest value. Bars run from the lowest to the highest Minnesota county; the tick marks the median; orange means higher water damage risk than the median, green means lower.
Questions
Peak risk months in Dakota County: freezing from November to March, heavy rain in May, July and August.
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 2024 5-year estimates (2020-2024); weather from NOAA nClimGrid-Daily county averages (EpiNOAA), 2015–2024, averaged across the county; county boundaries from Census TIGER. Reviewed 2026-10-21. Methodology