Madison County, Missouri · Fredericktown
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Pipes freeze in Madison County on about 25 nights a year, mostly November to February. Older homes, 26% of the stock here, are most at risk.
Heavy rain days of an inch or more come about 12.6 times a year here, most often in March. A sump pump that hasn't run since last season is a common weak point.
Backups often follow heavy rain, which Madison County gets about 12.6 days a year, when storm water overloads sewer mains and pushes up through the lowest drain in the house.
Roof leaks here come from summer downpours and, with about 84 freeze-thaw days a year, from winter ice dams. Most show up as ceiling stains in the room below.
21% of occupied homes in Madison County heat mainly with wood or propane, below the Missouri county median of 24.5%.
With 56 muggy nights a year, mold in Madison County can appear within days of a leak. Dry first, then clean.
Local risk profile
About 12,729 people live in Madison County, 494 square miles in southeast Missouri, in roughly 5,866 homes. Fredericktown is the county seat; Junction City, Mine La Motte and Cobalt are the next largest communities. The county's median home was built in 1977.
54/100 Water Damage Risk Index: Elevated Madison County ranks 42 of 114 Missouri counties. See the statewide ranking and method.The three factors where Madison County ranks highest compared with other Missouri counties.
For frozen pipes, Madison County is a typical Missouri county, which is still plenty. From 2015–2024 it averaged 25 nights a year at 20°F or colder, the range where pipes in exterior walls, crawl spaces and unheated garages freeze, and 96 nights at or below 32°F. That ranks 66th of 114 counties.
On December 24, 2022 the low fell to about -6°F, and in the stretch ending February 2021 the county went 12 days in a row below freezing. Leaks from split pipes typically appear the day the thaw arrives.
Expect the hardest freezes in January, inside a season that runs November to February. That's when an outdoor spigot left connected to a hose, or a pipe in a crawl space, is most likely to split.
On average the first fall freeze arrives around Oct 23 and the last spring freeze around Apr 11.
Heavy rain is a bigger factor here than in most of Missouri. The county gets about 48.9 inches of rain and melted snow a year, with 12.6 days of an inch or more (19th of 114). Those downpours cluster in March, April and May, when sump pumps and gutters are tested hardest. The wettest day on record brought 4.96 inches on April 30, 2017. Multi-day storms matter most for basements; the wettest three days on record here totaled 8.05 inches (through May 1, 2017).
About 84 days a year swing from below freezing at night to above freezing by day. Those freeze-thaw cycles feed ice dams on roofs, open cracks in foundations and driveways, and stress pipes that are already marginal.
Housing
Missouri's 114 counties range widely in housing age; Madison ranks 51st, with 55% of its homes built before 1980.
Housing age is mixed: 26% of homes are pre-1960 and 17% are 2000 or newer. Ask any plumber which era your house is from and you'll know which failures to watch for.
About 29% of homes went up between 1980 and 1999. Some houses from the late 1970s to the mid-1990s were plumbed with polybutylene, a gray plastic pipe known for failing at fittings. A plumber can tell you in a few minutes whether you have it.
Manufactured and mobile homes make up 13% of the housing here. Water lines in the underbelly depend on intact skirting and working heat tape, and they're usually the first to freeze in a cold snap.
20% of homes were vacant at survey time. A leak in an empty rental or seasonal house can run for days before anyone notices, which is why those losses tend to be larger.
Beyond water
Madison County averages 56 warm, muggy nights a year (lows of 65°F or more) and gets the most rain in May. Keep indoor humidity under 60%, as the EPA advises, and dry any leak within 24 to 48 hours; in a humid month a wet basement left alone won't dry by itself.
Mold remediation: what to expectHeating fuel matters for fire risk. In Madison County it's 20% utility gas, 58% electric, 10% propane and 11% wood. Wood heat is more common here than in most Missouri counties. Heating equipment is one of the leading causes of home fires nationally, and the NFPA recommends having chimneys and vents inspected every year.
Fire and smoke cleanup: first stepsCoverage
Calls connect to restoration companies that work across Madison County. The largest communities by population:
Population from ACS 2020-2024 5-year estimates. Townships and unincorporated areas are covered too.
Nearby
Iron and St. Francois get more pipe-freeze nights than Madison. Iron County has the oldest housing nearby, with 62% of homes built before 1980.
By the numbers
| Factor | Madison | Missouri median | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Homes built before 1960 | 26% | 25% | 52 of 114 |
| Homes built before 1980 | 55% | 53% | 51 of 114 |
| Homes built 2000 or later | 17% | 21% | 85 of 114 |
| Manufactured or mobile homes | 13% | 9.8% | 30 of 114 |
| Vacant homes | 20% | 15% | 33 of 114 |
| Wood or propane heat | 21% | 25% | 72 of 114 |
| Nights at 20°F or colder | 25/yr | 28/yr | 66 of 114 |
| Days with 1 inch+ of rain | 13/yr | 10/yr | 19 of 114 |
| Freeze-thaw days | 84/yr | 77/yr | 25 of 114 |
| Muggy nights (65°F+) | 56/yr | 65/yr | 84 of 114 |
Rank 1 is the highest value. Bars run from the lowest to the highest Missouri county; the tick marks the median; orange means higher water damage risk than the median, green means lower.
Questions
Peak risk months in Madison County: freezing from November to February, heavy rain in March, April and May.
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 2024 5-year estimates (2020-2024); weather from NOAA nClimGrid-Daily county averages (EpiNOAA), 2015–2024, averaged across the county; county boundaries from Census TIGER. Reviewed 2026-10-21. Methodology