Frederick County, Virginia · Winchester
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Pipes freeze in Frederick County on about 24 nights a year, mostly November to March. Older homes, 9% of the stock here, are most at risk.
Basements flood here mostly in September. Frederick County averages 7.5 days a year with an inch of rain or more.
Backups often follow heavy rain, which Frederick County gets about 7.5 days a year, when storm water overloads sewer mains and pushes up through the lowest drain in the house.
Roof leaks here come from summer downpours and, with about 94 freeze-thaw days a year, from winter ice dams. Most show up as ceiling stains in the room below.
13% of occupied homes in Frederick County heat mainly with wood or propane, above the Virginia county median of 11.9%.
Muggy summer nights, lows of 65°F or more, come about 29 times a year in Frederick County. Mold after a leak spreads fastest from June through August.
Local risk profile
About 95,008 people live in Frederick County, 413 square miles in northern Virginia, in roughly 37,288 homes. Winchester is the county seat; Shawneeland, Stephens City and Lake Holiday are the next largest communities. Much of its housing is recent, with a median build year of 1996.
36/100 Water Damage Risk Index: Moderate Frederick County ranks 86 of 95 Virginia counties. See the statewide ranking and method.The three factors where Frederick County ranks highest compared with other Virginia counties.
Frederick is on the colder side of Virginia for pipes. It averaged 103 freezing nights a year over 2015–2024, 24 of them at 20°F or colder, cold enough for pipes in outside walls and crawl spaces to freeze. Among 95 Virginia counties that's 7th.
On January 7, 2018 the low fell to about -1°F, and in the stretch ending January 2018 the county went 12 days in a row below freezing. Leaks from split pipes typically appear the day the thaw arrives.
Most freezing nights fall from November to March, peaking in January. Disconnect garden hoses and shut off outdoor spigots before the first hard frost, and keep the heat at 55°F or higher if you'll be away.
On average the first fall freeze arrives around Oct 24 and the last spring freeze around Apr 22.
Frederick gets fewer downpours than most Virginia counties, but they still fill basements. Of roughly 40.8 inches of yearly precipitation, the damage comes from the 7.5 days a year with an inch or more, ranked 89th of 95. June, July and September see the most. The single wettest day in the record: 4.66 inches, August 9, 2024. Multi-day storms matter most for basements; the wettest three days on record here totaled 5.95 inches (through August 9, 2024).
Freeze-thaw days, below freezing overnight and above it by afternoon, come about 94 times a year here. They're the main driver of ice dams and of water working its way through foundation cracks in late winter.
Housing
25% of homes in Frederick County predate 1980, below the Virginia county median of 46.2%, which ranks 87th of Virginia's 95 counties.
43% of homes were built in 2000 or later, more than in most of Virginia. Newer plumbing rarely corrodes, so damage here tends to come from appliance supply lines, water heaters, sump pumps and storms.
The 1980s and 1990s account for 33% of the county's homes. If yours is from those decades, look under the sinks and at the water heater for gray plastic pipe stamped PB, which is polybutylene and leak-prone.
Beyond water
Summer nights that don't drop below 65°F, a good marker of humid air, come about 29 times a year here, below the Virginia county median of 64. Mold grows when indoor humidity stays above about 60%, the EPA's ceiling. A basement dehumidifier set to 50% and drying anything wet within 24 to 48 hours prevents most problems.
Mold remediation: what to expectBy main heating fuel, Frederick County homes break down as 31% utility gas, 50% electric, 9% propane and 5% wood. Wood heat is more common here than in most Virginia counties. Heating equipment is one of the leading causes of home fires nationally, and the NFPA recommends having chimneys and vents inspected every year.
Fire and smoke cleanup: first stepsCoverage
Calls connect to restoration companies that work across Frederick County. The largest communities by population:
Population from ACS 2020-2024 5-year estimates. Townships and unincorporated areas are covered too.
Nearby
Shenandoah gets more pipe-freeze nights than Frederick. Clarke County has the oldest housing nearby, with 50% of homes built before 1980.
By the numbers
| Factor | Frederick | Virginia median | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Homes built before 1960 | 8.6% | 20% | 84 of 95 |
| Homes built before 1980 | 25% | 46% | 87 of 95 |
| Homes built 2000 or later | 43% | 25% | 8 of 95 |
| Manufactured or mobile homes | 5.8% | 9.6% | 66 of 95 |
| Vacant homes | 5.1% | 15% | 85 of 95 |
| Wood or propane heat | 13% | 12% | 44 of 95 |
| Nights at 20°F or colder | 24/yr | 14/yr | 7 of 95 |
| Days with 1 inch+ of rain | 7.5/yr | 10/yr | 89 of 95 |
| Freeze-thaw days | 94/yr | 77/yr | 6 of 95 |
| Muggy nights (65°F+) | 29/yr | 64/yr | 72 of 95 |
Rank 1 is the highest value. Bars run from the lowest to the highest Virginia county; the tick marks the median; orange means higher water damage risk than the median, green means lower.
Questions
Peak risk months in Frederick County: freezing from November to March, heavy rain in June, July and September.
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 2024 5-year estimates (2020-2024); weather from NOAA nClimGrid-Daily county averages (EpiNOAA), 2015–2024, averaged across the county; county boundaries from Census TIGER. Reviewed 2026-10-21. Methodology