Data report · 2026

Virginia Water Damage Risk Index

Where in Virginia is a house most likely to take on water? We combined Census housing age with ten years of daily weather for 95 of Virginia's 95 counties to rank them.

Highest index

Grayson

Score 69 of 100

Most pipe-freeze nights

Highland

39 nights ≤ 20°F a year

Oldest housing

Highland

43% built before 1960

Most heavy-rain days

Patrick

13.9 days ≥ 1 inch a year

< 4141–4747–5353–61≥ 61 index (0–100)

Key findings

The five highest-scoring counties are Grayson, Bath, Carroll, Floyd, Alleghany. Each combines old housing with harsher-than-average winters or frequent downpours.
Highland County has the oldest housing in the state, with 43% of homes built before 1960, against a county median of 20%.
Highland County averaged 39 nights a year at 20°F or colder, the most of any county in the data. The county median is 14.
Loudoun County has the newest housing, with 57% of homes built since 2000, which pulls its index down even where winters are cold.

Weather: NOAA nClimGrid-Daily county averages, 2015–2024. Housing: ACS 2020-2024.

All counties

Select a column header to sort.

Rank	County	Index	Freeze nights	Pre-1960 homes	Heavy-rain days	Muggy nights
1	Grayson	69	24	32%	10.3	2
2	Bath	66	27	36%	8.5	16
3	Carroll	66	19	23%	12.3	12
4	Floyd	66	23	21%	11.6	10
5	Alleghany	65	23	39%	8.6	24
6	Halifax	64	10	28%	11.2	72
7	Page	64	23	35%	8.6	26
8	Rockbridge	64	18	28%	10.2	38
9	Amherst	63	14	23%	12.8	54
10	Giles	63	25	40%	7.9	10
11	Henry	63	11	25%	13	64
12	Highland	63	39	43%	7.8	2
13	Lee	63	18	31%	9.9	31
14	Patrick	63	14	23%	13.9	42
15	Appomattox	62	12	24%	12	67
16	Arlington	62	12	34%	9.8	79
17	Nottoway	62	12	35%	9.7	78
18	Madison	61	18	24%	10.5	44
19	Prince Edward	61	11	25%	11.1	72
20	Rappahannock	61	20	26%	9.7	40
21	Charlotte	59	10	26%	11.1	70
22	Nelson	59	15	18%	12.4	52
23	Pittsylvania	59	12	22%	12.1	64
24	Southampton	59	7	24%	11.8	86
25	Surry	58	6	25%	11.2	96
26	Tazewell	58	26	31%	7.6	4
27	Lunenburg	57	10	33%	9.7	77
28	Wise	57	22	25%	9.2	14
29	Cumberland	56	14	18%	11.2	71
30	Mathews	56	6	31%	10.1	101
31	Scott	56	16	32%	8.7	33
32	Brunswick	55	9	27%	9.9	83
33	Buckingham	55	13	18%	11.4	70
34	Smyth	55	24	30%	7.5	4
35	Botetourt	54	17	19%	10.3	45
36	Sussex	54	8	22%	11.2	85
37	Bedford	53	14	12%	13	60
38	Clarke	53	21	27%	7.4	44
39	Mecklenburg	53	8	21%	11.4	81
40	Northampton	53	5	35%	9.1	105
41	Pulaski	53	22	27%	7.8	12
42	Essex	52	9	27%	9.3	82
43	Middlesex	52	7	25%	10	96
44	Wythe	52	23	24%	8	6
45	Craig	51	23	20%	8.7	22
46	Henrico	51	10	18%	10.8	81
47	Roanoke	51	17	17%	10.6	45
48	Bland	50	26	24%	7	4
49	Campbell	50	12	17%	11.2	65
50	Greene	50	17	12%	11	48
51	Greensville	50	8	18%	11.4	85
52	Goochland	49	15	8%	11.3	66
53	Rockingham	49	24	21%	7.8	21
54	Shenandoah	49	25	23%	6.5	22
55	Accomack	48	6	28%	8.8	96
56	Westmoreland	48	9	25%	8.9	83
57	Amelia	47	13	14%	10.5	77
58	Fluvanna	47	15	10%	11	68
59	Franklin	47	13	14%	11.1	54
60	King and Queen	47	9	19%	10.2	85
61	Augusta	46	22	17%	9	22
62	Buchanan	46	20	20%	8.3	25
63	Fauquier	46	17	18%	8.8	55
64	Richmond	46	9	23%	9.3	82
65	Warren	46	22	20%	7.6	35
66	Albemarle	45	15	10%	10.7	62
67	Dickenson	45	20	22%	7.7	21
68	Powhatan	45	14	7%	11.1	71
69	Culpeper	42	16	13%	9.7	56
70	Gloucester	42	6	14%	11	99
71	Hanover	42	12	11%	10.7	72
72	King William	42	9	14%	10.5	82
73	Lancaster	42	8	17%	10.1	92
74	Louisa	42	16	12%	9.8	57
75	Charles City	41	6	18%	10	98
76	Isle of Wight	41	5	12%	11.2	94
77	Northumberland	41	9	18%	8.9	86
78	Dinwiddie	40	10	13%	10	82
79	Montgomery	40	21	14%	8.4	18
80	Washington	40	19	18%	7.9	17
81	Orange	39	16	16%	8.3	57
82	Prince George	39	7	7%	11.2	91
83	Russell	39	20	19%	7	15
84	New Kent	37	8	12%	10.1	88
85	Chesterfield	36	10	6%	10.3	80
86	Frederick	36	24	9%	7.5	29
87	Caroline	35	12	12%	9.1	71
88	Fairfax	34	12	11%	8.8	75
89	James City	34	6	4%	10.8	101
90	Spotsylvania	34	16	6%	8.9	60
91	York	34	5	8%	10.6	104
92	Stafford	29	13	6%	8	75
93	King George	28	9	8%	8.6	84
94	Loudoun	26	16	4%	7.2	58
95	Prince William	26	13	4%	7.6	74

Methodology

For each county with weather data, we convert four factors to a percentile rank among those counties (0 = lowest, 100 = highest), then take a weighted average:

Pipe-freeze nights (nights ≤ 20°F / yr), weight 30%
Homes built before 1960 (% of homes), weight 30%
Heavy-rain days (days ≥ 1 in / yr), weight 25%
Muggy nights (nights ≥ 65°F / yr), weight 15%

Freezing weather and old plumbing get the most weight because burst and failing supply lines are among the most common causes of household water damage. Heavy rain drives basement flooding and sewer backups, and warm, muggy nights mark the humid air that lets mold follow. The index is relative: a low score means lower risk than other Virginia counties, not no risk.

Limits: weather values are county-wide averages, so hollows, ridges and lakeshores can differ; ACS housing figures are survey estimates; the index doesn't account for floodplains, soil, or local sewer systems. Full details on our data sources page.

Cite this data

You're welcome to use these figures with attribution. Suggested citation:

Local Water & Mold, "Virginia Water Damage Risk Index 2026," https://localwatermold.com/virginia/virginia-water-damage-risk/. Data: U.S. Census Bureau ACS 2020-2024; NOAA nClimGrid-Daily 2015–2024.