Warren County, Tennessee · McMinnville
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Pipes freeze in Warren County on about 12 nights a year, mostly December to February. Older homes, 17% of the stock here, are most at risk.
Basements flood here mostly in December. Warren County averages 16 days a year with an inch of rain or more.
Sewage backups in Warren County spike on heavy-rain days, about 16 a year, when sewer mains fill up and water finds the lowest drain.
Warren County's wettest day in the 2015–2024 record brought 3.8 inches, and about 66 freeze-thaw days a year mean ice dams in some winters.
4% of occupied homes in Warren County heat mainly with wood or propane, below the Tennessee county median of 7.8%.
About 62 nights a year here stay at 65°F or warmer, so basements and crawl spaces can grow mold even without a leak.
Local risk profile
With 18,537 homes and around 42,166 residents, Warren County is 433 square miles of central Tennessee. Besides McMinnville, the county seat, the biggest communities are Morrison, Centertown and Viola. The county's median home was built in 1979.
60/100 Water Damage Risk Index: Elevated Warren County ranks 21 of 95 Tennessee counties. See the statewide ranking and method.The three factors where Warren County ranks highest compared with other Tennessee counties.
Warren is on the colder side of Tennessee for pipes. In the 2015–2024 record the county logged about 12 nights a year at or below 20°F (31st of 95) and 70 below freezing. Twenty degrees is roughly where uninsulated pipes start to freeze.
The longest cold spell was straight 5 days without the temperature rising above freezing, ending in February 2015. The coldest night reached about -6°F on January 17, 2024. Burst pipes usually show up when a spell like that breaks and the ice thaws.
The freeze season here runs December to February, with January the coldest. If you travel then, leave the thermostat at 55°F or above and open sink cabinets on outside walls.
On average the first fall freeze arrives around Oct 31 and the last spring freeze around Apr 4.
Heavy rain is a bigger factor here than in most of Tennessee. About 16 days a year bring an inch or more (12th of 95), most often in December, out of 62 inches of total precipitation. On March 28, 2021, 3.8 inches fell in a single day. Multi-day storms matter most for basements; the wettest three days on record here totaled 5.29 inches (through February 25, 2022).
The temperature crosses 32°F in both directions on roughly 66 days a year. Each cycle melts and refreezes water at roof edges and in foundation cracks, which is how ice dams and basement seepage get started.
Housing
52% of homes in Warren County predate 1980, above the Tennessee county median of 41.2%, which ranks 15th of Tennessee's 95 counties.
Housing age is mixed: 17% of homes are pre-1960 and 20% are 2000 or newer. Ask any plumber which era your house is from and you'll know which failures to watch for.
28% date from 1980 to 1999, the window when polybutylene, a gray flexible plastic supply pipe, was used in some homes. It's prone to leaks at the fittings, so it's worth checking for in a house from those years.
13% of homes are manufactured or mobile homes, below the Tennessee county median of 15.9%. Their water lines run under the floor behind the skirting, so a torn skirt or failed heat tape freezes them faster than lines in a site-built house.
Beyond water
About 62 nights a year in Warren County stay at 65°F or warmer, a sign of muggy summer air (69th of 95 counties). February is the wettest month. Keep indoor humidity under 60%, as the EPA advises, and dry any leak within 24 to 48 hours; in a humid month a wet basement left alone won't dry by itself.
Mold remediation: what to expectHeating fuel matters for fire risk. In Warren County it's 25% utility gas, 70% electric, 3% propane and under 1% wood. Heating equipment, cooking and electrical failures cause most home fires nationally. Even a small kitchen fire can leave soot through the whole house, because smoke follows air currents into closets, ducts and attic space.
Fire and smoke cleanup: first stepsCoverage
Calls connect to restoration companies that work across Warren County. The largest communities by population:
Population from ACS 2020-2024 5-year estimates. Townships and unincorporated areas are covered too.
Nearby
Grundy and Van Buren get more pipe-freeze nights than Warren. Van Buren County has the oldest housing nearby, with 55% of homes built before 1980.
By the numbers
| Factor | Warren | Tennessee median | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Homes built before 1960 | 17% | 16% | 47 of 95 |
| Homes built before 1980 | 52% | 41% | 15 of 95 |
| Homes built 2000 or later | 20% | 27% | 80 of 95 |
| Manufactured or mobile homes | 13% | 16% | 53 of 95 |
| Vacant homes | 13% | 12% | 43 of 95 |
| Wood or propane heat | 3.8% | 7.8% | 75 of 95 |
| Nights at 20°F or colder | 12/yr | 11/yr | 31 of 95 |
| Days with 1 inch+ of rain | 16/yr | 14/yr | 12 of 95 |
| Freeze-thaw days | 66/yr | 60/yr | 18 of 95 |
| Muggy nights (65°F+) | 62/yr | 74/yr | 69 of 95 |
Rank 1 is the highest value. Bars run from the lowest to the highest Tennessee county; the tick marks the median; orange means higher water damage risk than the median, green means lower.
Questions
Peak risk months in Warren County: freezing from December to February, heavy rain in February, March and December.
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 2024 5-year estimates (2020-2024); weather from NOAA nClimGrid-Daily county averages (EpiNOAA), 2015–2024, averaged across the county; county boundaries from Census TIGER. Reviewed 2026-10-21. Methodology